ABIO10 PGTW 191800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZNOV2018// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZNOV2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) NO TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.8N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 369 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN OBSCURED, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. A 191205Z SSMIS F-18 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC. 92B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL MODERATELY INTENSIFY WHILE INITIALLY TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING ACROSS THE INDIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 191200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (BOUCHRA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2S 80.4E, APPROXIMATELY 672 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 191500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN
Cyclone names are selected in advance by the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee of the World Meteorological Organization.
Classification of cyclones depends on the maximum continuous wind speed.
Cyclones migrating from the Australian observation area over the 90th degree of longitude are given a new name.
The other way around, they keep their name.
is, with 1 min peaks of 285 km/h, the strongest tropical cyclone measured in the southwestern Indian Ocean.
|Cyclone Classes||When they come into effect|
|Class 1||If possible 36 to 48 hours before Rodrigues, gusts of up to 120 km/h are to be expected.|
|Class 2||Issued to allow, as far as practicable, 12 hours of daylight before gusts of 120 km/h occur|
|Class 3||Issued to allow, as far as possible, 6 hours of daylight before gusts of 120 km/h occur.|
|Class 4||It is issued when gusts of 120 km/h have been registered in some places and are expected.|
|Cyclone Warning Removed||It is issued when there is no longer a risk of gusts above 120 km/h.|